A future of severe storms, crippling drought, soaring temperatures and rising sea levels is inevitable, according to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which released its 1200-page report in Paris last night. The work of 2500 scientists over six years, it is considered the most authoritative evaluation of climate change ever produced. Check out the press release which has a link to a PDF of the report.
The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report describes progress in understanding of the human and natural drivers of climate change, observed climate change, climate processes and attribution, and estimates of projected future climate change. It details six scenarios under which temperatures are predicted to rise from at least 1.1 degrees and possibly as much as 6.4 degrees by 2100. An interesting video clip by Reuters outlines some of the potential impacts in Asia.
The IPCC report’s findings reinforce some stark messages. The evidence for warming is now unequivocal. There has been a 0.74C rise in global temperatures over the past century, much of this occurring in the last few decades.
The direct link between human activities and global warming is more clearly established than ever. This link can now be drawn not only with global atmospheric temperature, but also with the warming in the oceans, with sea level rise and in the pattern of atmospheric warming. The report confirms that warming resulting from human activity is around 10 times greater than that from changes in the Sun’s activity. We have caused most of the recent observed warming.
In true scientific form, the final text of the report says it is “very likely” that human activities led by burning fossil fuels account for most of the warming in the past 50 years. It puts this at a 90 per cent certainty - a significant ramping up of the language of the last report of the panel in 2001, which said the link was “likely”. Scientists at the final four-day workshop said this was the most important paragraph of the report.
This cartoon in The Age sums up this whole debate nicely I think!
As the forum broke up, The Guardian broke a story claiming that scientists and economists had been offered $10,000 each by a lobby group funded by one of the world’s largest oil companies — ExxonMobil — to undermine efforts to gain a consensus on the report.
Exxon have reported “a net profit for 2006 of $US39.5 billion ($51.1 billion), its second consecutive annual record. Once again, it was the largest profit reported by any American company in history, though fourth-quarter profit actually declined slightly”.
As my friend Jen put it:
How can Exxon, a company that caused so much environmental damage when one of its supersize oil tankers vomited oil into the North Sea several years ago AND one that continues to get its product from unstable, poverty-stricken third world countries, be allowed to make so much money in the current environment?
Already there is some interesting discussion starting up…
Take a look at the International Herald Tribune and The Guardian blogs. For Australian opinion on direct action, see the Sydney Morning Herald on the switching greenpower.
For an excellent insider’s perspective, take a read through the Real Climate discussion.
An article by David King in The Observer has eloquently summed up the societal implications of these finding:
The message for policy-makers is clear: climate change is not a passing fancy for environmentalists. It represents a challenge on a scale that will affect societies and economies across the world…
As individuals, we can make adjustments that together can have a big impact. As consumers, we can transform markets through our purchasing choices. And as concerned citizens, we can encourage governments, nationally and locally, to show leadership…
It is important to remember that, beyond the next two decades or so, the future severity of climate change and its impacts lies in our hands. We have the knowledge, technologies and capability to transform our economies, if we have the commitment to do so…
The IPCC’s work is vital in providing a solid foundation of evidence on which these crucial decisions can be made. We have lost 17 years since Kyoto. Now we have to act.
