It’s been a huge week for climate change policy.
For the first time the USA is “seriously considering” a deal between the world’s eight leading industrialised countries (the G8) to move towards a halving of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Significantly, the agreement reached 7 June in Germany, does not set binding long-term target for greenhouse gas emissions or commit the United States to any specific reductions.
Nevertheless, it has been hailed as a historic step towards reaching agreement in 2009 to cut carbon gases worldwide by 50% by 2050. It is a sign that the US is now willing to at least come to the negotiation table. It has raised hopes of a breakthrough and possible drafting of a “Sydney Declaration” at the next APEC meeting to be held in September.
The 20 APEC members and the six members of the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate account for more than 60% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions and demand more than 60% of the world’s energy resources.
It will be the first coming together of China and the USA, the the world’s two biggest greenhouse gas emitters, since the G8 meeting this week. Hopes are high for the start of real political action on climate change. It will be very interesting to see what eventuates.
Meanwhile, back home in Australia…
John Howard has taken up the recommendation of his hand-picked Task Group on Emissions Trading that “it will take four years for Australia to begin full-scale emissions trading”.
The Climate Institute Australia in Sydney believe that this will only further delay key reforms for up to five years will fail to turn Australia’s greenhouse pollution around or help make the switch to a clean energy future for Australia.
On this basis, it will be 15 years since the Government was fully informed of the serious implications of climate change before anything substantive is done to reduce emissions growth.
Howard has been reported as saying “A 20% reduction from 1990 levels would do enormous damage to our economy and to Australian living standards”.
He goes on to say “To meet such a target the Emissions Trading Taskforce concluded that it would require, and I quote, ‘replacing Australia’s entire existing fossil fuel-fired electricity generation capacity with electricity from nuclear power, while at the same time removing all vehicles from our roads’.
This is scaremongering and misleading, at best.
As a reporter from the The Age rightly points out, the PM forgot to include some critical words from the report: “In the absence of technological breakthroughs”. These few words make a huge difference.
The reality is that Australia’s economy is at much greater long term risk if decisive action is not taken immediately.
According to the The Climate Institute Australia’s Chief Executive John Connor, “Unless we act decisively Australia will remain in the shadow of the 21st century global clean energy economy worth $75 billion in 2005 and expected to grow to over a $225 billion a year industry within a decade.”
Analysis of the Government’s ABARE modelling by the CSIRO’s Energy Futures Forum 1 which includes BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Westpac, WWF and ACOSS, show that strong economic growth is set to continue if we take action.
The Climate Institute have reported that under all scenarios modelled, it is projected that both the Australian and world economies will continue to experience strong economic growth when carrying out greenhouse gas mitigation.
The Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change 2 found GDP continues to grow 2.1% pa with early action and increases from $0.8 trillion in 2005 to $2 trillion in 2050. This occurs while Australia reduces emissions by 60% by 2050.
The Government’s paranoia on climate change is completely fixated on the negative and a resistance to change. They continue to emphasise the cost increases, loss of competitiveness of traditional fossil-fuel industries. It selects economic modelling that exaggerates costs, ignores benefits and adds to a sense of cynicism and paralysis.
The reality is that moving towards to a low-carbon economy represents the greatest business opportunity we have ever seen. There are a number of technologies awaiting the signal that the Government is serious about emissions reduction.
No doubt, once genuine signals are given by government, there will be an avalanche of innovation and technological breakthroughs. It will transform our economy, create enormous economic opportunities and a chance to achieve environmental sustainability. Right now, we are missing out on huge innovative opportunities as we watch our expertise go offshore (see my Long Live the King post).
As CO2 concentrations, global temperatures and sea level rise are all near or above the high end of the “worst case scenarios” projected by the United Nations IPCC, timing is crucial for both for the planet and business opportunities.
There is no time to waste.