Journal articles, books and book chapters

50. Gergis, J. and Cary, G. (2020). Some say we’ve seen bushfires worse than this before, but they’re ignoring a few key facts in The Conversation Yearbook 2020, Thames & Hudson (in press)

49. Gergis, J. (2020). The great unravelling. Fire, Flood and Plague: Australian writers respond to the challenges of 2020, Penguin Random House (in press).

48. Slivinski, L. C., and coauthors, including Gergis, J. (2020) An evaluation of the performance of the 20th Century Reanalysis version 3. Journal of Climate (in revision).

47.  Nash, D.J., and coauthors including Gergis, J. (2020). Climate indices in historical climate reconstructions: a global state of the art. Climate of the Past (in preparation).

46.  Gergis, J., Ashcroft, L., and Whetton, P. (2020). A historical perspective on Australian temperature extremes. Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-020-05298-z.

45.  Gergis, J. (2020). The terrible truth of climate change in Facing the Storm: Love, Loss and Hope in the face of Environmental Crisis, NewSouth Publishing, (in press).

44. Brönnimann, S., and coauthors including Gergis, J. (2019). Unlocking pre-1850 instrumental meteorological records: A global inventory. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:

43. Slivinski, L. C.,  and coauthors, including Gergis, J. (2019). Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis:Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society:

42. Allan, R.J., Gergis, J., and D’Arrigo, R. (2019). Placing the AD 2014–2016 ‘protracted’ El Niño episode into a long-term context. The Holocene:

41. Gergis, J. (2018). Sunburnt Country: The future and history of climate change in Australia, Melbourne University Press, 310pp.

40. Oreskes, N., Conway, E.M., Karoly, D.J., Gergis, J., Neu, U., and Pfister, C.,  (2018). The denial of global warming. Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, Palgrave Macmillan, p 149-171.

39. Damodaran, V., Allan, R.J., Ogilvie, A.E., Demarée, G.R., Gergis, J.,  Mikami, T., Mikhail, A.,  Nicolson, S.E.,  Norgarrd, S., and Hamilton, J. (2018). The 1780s: Global Climate Anomalies, Floods, Droughts and Famines. Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, Palgrave Macmillan, p 517-550.

38.  Gergis, J., Ashcroft, L. and Garden, D. (2018). A climate history of Australia. Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, Palgrave Macmillan, p 237-245.

37. PAGES2k Consortium, including Aus2k coauthor Gergis, J., (2017). A global multi-proxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Scientific Data 4 (4:170088 ): DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2017.88.

36. Power, S., Saurral, R., Chung, C., Colman, R., Kharin, S., Boer, G., Gergis, J., Henley, B.J., Arblaster, J., Liguori, G. (2017). Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. CLIVAR Exchanges 72: 32–40.

35. Dixon, B.C., Tyler, J.J., Lorrey, A.M., Goodwin, I.D., Gergis, J., and Drysdale, R.N. (2017). Low-resolution Australasian palaeoclimate records of the past 2000 years. Climate of the Past 13: 1403-1433.

34. Hope, P., Henley, B.J, Gergis, J., Brown, J., and Ye, H. (2016). Time varying spectral  characteristics of ENSO over the last millennium. Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3393-z.

33. Ashcroft, L., Allan, R.J., Benoy, M., Bridgman, H., Gergis, J., Pudmenzky, C., and Thornton, K. (2016). Current climate data rescue activities in Australia. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 33 (12): 10.1007/s00376-016-6189-5.

32. Abram, N.J., McGregor, H.V., Tierney, J.E., Evans, M.N., McKay, N.P., Kaufman, D.S., K.J., Thirumalai, K., Martrat, B., Goosse, H., Phipps, S.J., Steig, E.J., Kilbourne, K.H., Saenger, C.P., Zinke, J., Leduc, G., Addison, J.A., Mortyn, P.G., Seidenkrantz, M.S., Sicre, M.A., Selvaraj, K., Filipsson,H.L., Neukom, R., Gergis, J.,  Curran, M., and von Gunten, L. (2016). The onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents. Nature 536 (7617): 411-418.

31. Gergis, J., Neukom, R., Gallant, A., and Karoly, D.J. (2016). Australasian temperature reconstructions  spanning the last millennium. Journal of Climate 29: 5365–5392.

30. Gergis, J., and Henley, B.J. (2016). Southern Hemisphere rainfall variability over the past 200 years. Climate Dynamics 48 (7): 2087-2105.

29. PAGES2k–PMIP3 Group:  Bothe, O., Evans, M., Fernández Donado, L., Garcia Bustamante, E.,  Gergis, J., Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F., Goosse, H., Hegerl, G., Hind, A., Jungclaus, J., Kaufman,D., Lehner, F., McKay, N., Moberg, A., Raible, C.C., Schurer, A., Shi, F., Smerdon, J. E., von Gunten, L., Wagner, S., Warren, E., Widmann, M., Yiou, P., Zorita, E. (2015). Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. Climate of the Past 11 (3): 2483-2555.

28. Brown, J., Hope, P., Gergis, J, and Henley, B.J. (2015). ENSO teleconnections with Australian rainfall in coupled model simulations of the last millenniumClimate Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2824-6.

27. Ashcroft, L., Gergis, J. and Karoly, D.J. (2015). Long-term stationarity of El Niño—Southern Oscillation teleconnections in southeastern Australia. Climate Dynamics 46 (9): 2991-3006.

26. Henley, B.J., Gergis, J., Karoly, D.J., Power, S., Kennedy, J. and Folland, C. (2015). A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific OscillationClimate Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1

25. Pearson, S., Cork, S., Zammitt, C., Plant, R., Gergis, J., Gell, P., Dodson, J., Richard Thackway, R., Sealie, L., Lynch, J. and Taffs, K. (2015). The use of natural archives of ecosystem services, resilience and thresholds to improve policy, science and practiceThe Holocene 25(2) 366–378.

24. Ashcroft, L., Gergis, J. and Karoly, D.J. (2014). A historical climate dataset for southeastern Australia,1788–1859. Geoscience Data Journal  DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.1.

23. Fenby, C., Garden, D., and Gergis, J. (2014). ‘The usual weather in New South Wales is uncommonly bright and clear…equal to the finest summer day in England: Climate and Weather in New South Wales, 1788–1815,’ in Climate, Science and Colonization: Histories from Australia and New Zealand, edited by James Beattie, Matthew Henry and Emily O’Gorman, New York, Palgrave Macmillan, pp 43–60.

22. Neukom, R., Gergis J., Karoly, D.J., Frank, D., Villalba, R., Zinke, J., Linsley, B., Raible, C., González-Rouco, F. and Steig, E. (2014). Southern Hemisphere temperature variability over the last millennium, Nature Climate Change 4: 362–367.

21. Ashcroft, L., Karoly, D.J. and Gergis, J. (2013). South-eastern Australian climate 1860–2009: a multivariate approach. International Journal of Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.3812.

20. Mills, K., Gell, P., Gergis, J., Baker, P., Finlayson, M., Hesse, P., Jones, R., Kershaw, P., Pearson, S., Treble, P., Barr, C., Brookhouse, M., Drysdale, R., McDonald, J., Haberle, S., Reid, M., Thoms, M., Tibby, J. (2013). Palaeoclimate studies and natural resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin II: unravelling past human impact and climate variability. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences DOI: 10.1080/08120099.2013.804879.

19. Phipps, S., McGregor, H., Gergis, J., Gallant, A. J. E., Neukom, R., Stevenson, S., van Ommen, T., Brown, J., Fischer, M. and Ackerley, D. (2013). Palaeoclimate data–model comparison: Concepts and application to the climate of Australasia over the past 1500 years. Journal of Climate 26, 6915–6936.

18. PAGES Regional 2K consortium including Aus2K coauthors Gergis, J., Lorrey A.M and Phipps, S.J. (2013). Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Nature Geoscience 6: 339–346.

17. Fenby, C. and Gergis, J. (2013). A rainfall history of south-eastern Australia Part 1: a consolidation of pre-instrumental evidence from documentary sources, 1788–1860International Journal of Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.3640.

16. Gergis, J., and Ashcroft, L. (2013). A rainfall history of south-eastern Australia Part 2: a comparison of documentary, early instrumental and palaeoclimate records, 1788–2008International Journal of Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.3639.

15. Ashcroft, L., Karoly D. and Gergis, J. (2012). Southeastern Australian temperature variations 1860–2011. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 62: 227–245.

14. Neukom, R. and Gergis, J. (2012). Southern Hemisphere high resolution palaeoclimate records of the past 2000 yearsThe Holocene5: 501–524.

13. Fowler, A. M., Boswijk, G., Lorrey, A.M., Gergis, J., Pirie, M.,  McCloskey, S. ,  Palmer, J. and Wunder, J.  (2012). Multi-centennial tree-ring record of ENSO-related activity in New Zealand. Nature Climate Change2, 172–176.

12. Gergis, J., Gallant, A. J. E., Braganza, K., Karoly, D. J., Allen, K., Cullen, L., D’Arrigo, R., Goodwin, I., Grierson, P. and McGregor, S. (2012). On the long-term context of the 1997-2009 ‘Big Dry’ in south-eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction. Climatic Change111 (3): 923–944.

11. Gallant, A. J. E., and Gergis, J. (2011). An experimental streamflow reconstruction for the River Murray, Australia, 1783–1988Water Resources Research 47, W00G04, doi:10.1029/2010WR009832.

10. Gergis, J., Garden, D. and Fenby, C. (2010). The influence of climate on the first European settlement of Australia: a comparison of weather journals, documentary data and palaeoclimate records, 1788–1793. Environmental History, 15(3):1–23.

9. Gergis, J., Brohan, P. and Allan, R.J. (2010). The weather of the First Fleet voyage to Botany Bay, 1787–1788. Weather 65 (12): 315-319.

8. Gergis, J., Karoly, D.J. and Allan, R.J. (2009).  A climate reconstruction of Sydney Cove, New South Wales, using weather journal and documentary data, 1788–1791Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 58 83-98.

7. Gergis, J. and Fowler, A. (2009). A history of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events since A.D. 1525; implications for future climate changeClimatic Change 92(3): 343-387.

6. Braganza, K.,  Gergis, J.,  Power, S., Risbey, J.  and Fowler, A. (2009). A multiproxy index of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, A.D. 1525-1982, Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres) D05106, doi:10.1029/2008JD010896: p1-17.

5. Gergis, J. (2008).Documentary accounts of the impacts of past climate variability on the early colony of New South Wales, 1788–1791: a preliminary analysisBulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 21(5), 103-107.

4. Fowler, A.M., Boswijk, G., Gergis, J. and Lorrey, A. (2008). ENSO history recorded in Agathis australis (Kauri) tree-rings Part A: Kauri’s potential as an ENSO proxyInternational Journal of Climatology 28(1):1–20.

3. Gergis, J. and Fowler, A. (2006). How unusual was late Twentieth Century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary archives, A.D. 1525-2002. Advances in Geosciences, 6: 173-179.

2. Gergis, J., Fowler, A., Braganza, K., Risbey, J. and Mooney, S (2006). Reconstructing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from high-resolution palaeoarchives. Journal of Quaternary Science, 21(7):707-722

1. Gergis, J. and Fowler, A. (2005). Classification of synchronous oceanic and atmospheric El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for palaeoclimate reconstruction. International Journal of Climatology, 25: 1541–1565.


20. Steffen, W., Bambrick, H., Hussey, K., Gergis, J., Bourne, G., Brailsford, L. and Dean, A. (2019). Welcome to Queensland: Renewable one day, and the next, and next. Climate Council of Australia, pp 52.

19. Steffen, W., Vertessy, R., Dean, A., Hughes, L., Bambrick, H., Gergis, J. and Rice, M. (2018). Deluge and Drought: Australia’s Water Security in a Changing Climate. Climate Council of Australia, pp 92.

18. Gergis, J., Lorrey, A., Abram, N., Henley, B.J., Phipps, S.J., Saunders, K.M., and Aus2k Workshop Participants. (2016). 4th Aus2k workshop report – Australasian palaeoclimate of the last 2000 years: Inter-comparison of climate field reconstruction methodologies, modeling, and data synthesis approaches. PAGES Magazine 24 (1): 42.

17. Gergis, J., Phipps, S.J., Lorrey, A., Abram, N., Henley, B.J., , Saunders, K.M., and Aus2k Workshop Participants. (2016). Australasian palaeoclimate of the last 2000 years: Inter-comparison of climate field reconstruction methodologies, modeling, and data synthesis approaches. Quaternary Australasia 31(1): 23–25.

16.  PAGES Regional 2K consortium including Aus2K coauthor Gergis, J. (2014). PAGES 2k — A framework for community-driven climate reconstructions during the past two millennia. Eos 95 (40): 361-362.

15. Gergis, J., Hope, P., Abram, N., Brown, J., Phipps, S.J., Henley, B., Lorrey, A., Roop, H., and Tyler, J. (2014). Australasia’s past climate variability. Quaternary Australasia 31(2): 20–23.

14. Hope, P., Gergis, J., Abram, N., Brown, J., Phipps, S., Henley, B., Lorrey, A., Roop, H., and Tyler, J. (2014). Australasia’s past climate variability: strengths drawn from palaeoclimate and model data over the last 2000 years. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 27(5): 92–95.

13. Gergis, J., Hope, P., Abram N. and Henley, B. (2014). Australasia’s climate variability: clues drawn from paleoclimate and model data over the last 2000 years. PAGES News 22 (2): 101.

12. Von Gunten, L.,  D.M. Anderson, B. Chase1, M. Curran, J. Gergis, E.P. Gille, W. Gross, S. Hanhijärvi, D.S. Kaufman, T. Kiefer, N.P. McKay, I. Mundo1, R. Neukom, M. Sano1, A. Shah, J. Tyler, A. Viau, S. Wagner, E.R. Wahl and D. Willard (2013). The backbone of PAGES 2k: data management and archiving. PAGES News 21(3): 87.

11. Gergis, J., Grierson, P., Lorrey, A., Palmer, J. and Phipps, S.J. (2011). 2nd Aus2K regional network workshop: data synthesis and research planning. Quaternary Australasia 28(1): 21–22.

10. Gergis, J., Grierson, P.,  Lorrey, A.,  Palmer, J. and  Phipps, S.J. (2011). 2nd Australasia 2k Network workshop: Data synthesis and research planning. Meeting of the PAGES Aus2k Working Group – Perth, Australia, 27–29 April 2011. PAGES News, 19 (2): 74–75.

9. Turney, C., Gergis, J., Lorrey, A., Palmer, J., Phipps, S.J., van Ommen, T. (2010). The 1st Australasia 2k regional workshop: Towards data synthesis, Melbourne Australia, 31 May – 2 June 2010PAGES news, 18 (2): 91– 92.

8. Gergis, J. and Gallant A. (2010). Communicating climate change: advice from Science meets Parliament 2010Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 22 (2):4–6.

7. Phipps, S., Gergis, J. and Petherick, L. (2009). PAGES 1st Young Scientists Meeting and 3rd Open Science MeetingQuaternary Australasia 26, 8–9.

6. Gell, P., Gergis, J. Mills, K., Baker, P., De Deckker, P., Finlayson, M., Hesse, P., Jones, R., Kershaw, P., Pearson, S., Treble, P., Barr, C., Brookhouse, M., Drysdale, R., Haberle, S. Karoly, D.J., McDonald, J., Reid, M., Thoms, M., and Tibby, J. (2009). Palaeoclimate studies relevant to natural resource management in the Murray–Darling Basin, in Murray‐Darling Basin Authority Science Review, Canberra, Australia.

5. Braganza, K., J. L. Gergis, S. B. Power, J. S. Risbey, and A. M. Fowler (2009), A new basin-wide multi-proxy index of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, A.D. 1525-1982, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Technical Report No 005: 1–74.

4. Gergis, J. (2007). A report on the 2nd International Young Scientists’ Global Change Conference and the 2nd Earth System Science Partnership’s Open Science Conference, Nov 5-12th 2006, Beijing, ChinaQuaternary Australasia, 24(2):40–42.

3. Braganza, K., Gergis, J., Risbey, J., Fowler, A., Turney, C. and Nicholls, N. (2006). Palaeo-evidence of historic Australian climate variability. Climatic Change Research in Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) Research Report No. 125, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne Australia.

2. Gergis, J., Boswijk, G. and Fowler, A. (2005). An update of modern Northland Kauri (Agathis australis) tree-ring chronologies Part 1: Puketi State Forest. New Zealand tree-ring Site Report No.19 School of Geography and Environmental Science Working Paper 29, University of Auckland, New Zealand.

1. Gergis, J., Boswijk, G. and Fowler, A. (2005). An update of modern Northland Kauri (Agathis australis) tree-ring chronologies Part 2: Trounson Kauri Park. New Zealand tree-ring Site Report No. 20, School of Geography and Environmental Science Working Paper 30, University of Auckland, New Zealand.

Other publications

27. Gergis, J. (2020). Elemental summer: A season of change. The Griffith Review (in press).

26. Gergis, J. and Ashcroft, L. (2020). Snow is falling less often according to weather records back to 1838. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 34 (2). 

25. Gergis, J. (2020). The great unravelling. The Guardian (in press).

24. Gergis, J. (2020). Witnessing the unthinkable. The Monthly, 29 June 2020.

23. Gergis, J. and Ashcroft, L. (2020). We dug up Australian weather records back to 1838 and found snow is falling less often. The Conversation, 4 June 2020.

22. Gergis, J. and Cary, G. (2020). Some say we’ve seen bushfires worse than this before. But they’re ignoring a few key facts. The Conversation, 13 January 2020.

21. Gergis, J. (2020). We are seeing the very worst of our scientific predictions come to pass in these bushfires. The Guardian 3 January 2020.

20. Gergis, J. (2019). Emergency on planet Earth. Harpers Bazaar, December 2019, p 54–55.

19. Gergis, J. (2019). I never thought I’d see the Australian rainforest burning. What will it take for us to wake up to the climate crisis? The Guardian 10 September 2019.

18. Gergis, J. (2019). The terrible truth of climate change. The Monthly, 1 August 2019.

17. Gergis, J. (2018) Black skies and raging seas: how the First Fleet got a first taste of Australia’s unforgiving climate. The Conversation 2 April 2018.

16. Gergis, J. and Whetton, P. (2017). Can art put us in touch with how we feel about climate change? The Conversation 4 May 2017.

15. Gergis, J. (2017). Northern NSW is no stranger to floods, but this one was different. The Conversation, 7 April 2017.

14. Ashcroft, L., Gergis, J., and Karoly, D.J. (2017). Delving through settlers’ diaries can reveal Australia’s colonial-era climate. The Conversation, 10 February 2017.

13. McGregor, H.V., Gergis, J., Abram, N.J., and Phipps, S.J. (2016). The Industrial Revolution kick-startedglobal warming much earlier than we realised. The Conversation, 25 August 2016.

12. Gergis, J. (2016). How a single word sparked a four-year saga of climate fact-checking and blog backlashThe Conversation, 11 July 2016.

11. Gergis, J. (2014). Southern Hemisphere climate follows the beat of a different drummer. Australasian Science  2014, Dec: 34–36.

10. Gergis, J. (2010). Winning the guerrilla war on climate change at Science meets Parliament 2010. University of Melbourne Science Matters, 19 March 2010.

9. Gergis, J. (2010) Salvaging sunken treasureSL Magazine, State Library of New South Wales, Winter 2010, 18–21.

8. Gergis, J. (2009). Leaping forward through the past: how historical documents can help scientists understand climate changeUniversity of Melbourne Collections, 4 42–44.

7. Karoly, D.J and Gergis, J. (2009). Turning up the heat. Sydney Morning Herald, 30 March 2009.

6. Gergis, J. (2007). Lessons of the elders. COSMOS magazine, issue 18 (Dec/Jan), p74–79.

5. Gergis, J. (2007). Backing Australia’s ability? Wet Ink, issue 9 (Dec/Jan), p14–15.

4. Gergis, J. (2007). Portrait: The Weather Warrior (Karl Braganza). COSMOS magazine, issue 16 (June/July) 2007. See the ABC’s Catalyst profile based on this article.

3. Gergis, J. (2007). No more climate distractionsCOSMOS online, 27 July 2007.

2. Gergis, J. (2006). Reconstructing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525–2002. Quaternary Australasia 24(1):14.

1. Gergis, J. (2006). Reconstructing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525–2002. PhD Thesis, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Australia.